This post presents the full text of the July 1, 2025 Berkeley Evacuation study’s recommendation section as it applies to wildfire, excerpted directly from the study. Sections only relevant to tsunami evacuation have been removed. We have a link to the PDF for the full study at the bottom.
From the Berkeley evacuation study:
"11 RECOMMENDATIONS
This evacuation study explores how Berkeley’s alerting systems, anticipated evacuee behaviors, estimated transportation resource needs, and roadway capacity and design will interact in large scale emergencies. The results of this report can help inform Berkeley’s disaster response planning, transportation and roadway planning, housing and land use development policies, and the individual evacuation plans of Berkeley households. This section uses the findings of this report to highlight recommendations for consideration by City officials. [Recommendations are summarized in Table 11-1.]
11.1 Integrate Evacuation Study Concepts into City Policies and Response Planning
11.1.1 Emergency Response Strategies
It is recommended that the City consider integrating concepts from this Evacuation Study into emergency response plans and strategy development as described below. The City can further contextualize evacuation time estimates in this report by overlaying evacuation time estimates with hazard-specific data (such as fire spread rates for fire regions, and tsunami arrival times on tsunami warning regions.) This integration of ETE and hazard data will help clarify the risk to the community from hazard events requiring large-scale evacuation. The City can work to quantify likely resource shortfalls associated with the evacuation scenarios in this report through planning partnerships with transit providers serving Berkeley and the region, as well as emergency management and mutual aid partners at the Operational Area (County) and State. Section 8 identifies resource needs for transit-dependent evacuees. Planning partners can clarify regional and State capacity to provide support, as well as time estimates to mobilize those resources in localized and regional disaster scenarios.
The City can use congestion diagrams from this study (see Appendix F) to prioritize specific locations for Traffic Control Points (staff intersections and help improve traffic flow) during evacuations. Among the numerous competing life-safety needs associated with large-scale evacuations, responders can prioritize these locations for available traffic management resources to improve traffic flow and/or to reduce evacuation times. External traffic or pass-through traffic are vehicles with origins and destinations outside of the area being evacuated that pass through the area being evacuated during their trip. This traffic consumes the available roadway and transit capacity, reducing the available capacity to those most at risk, increasing congestion and prolonging ETE. During emergency evacuations, City responders can coordinate with partners to reduce or eliminate external/pass-through traffic. This can include use of electronic roadside signage, closure of off-ramps into Berkeley, and/or diversion of through traffic to other routes.
The City can encourage schools to develop and communicate site evacuation plans that enable parents and guardians to pick up their children at sites outside the evacuation zone. Making provisions for parents to pick up children outside the evacuation zone will reduce traffic congestion around schools in evacuation zones and will improve families’ mobilization times.
11.1.2 Extreme Fire Weather Leave Early Policy
The Berkeley Fire Department should maintain its Leave Early Policy for extreme fire weather.
Study results indicate population-level improvements such as the leave early policy could
improve evacuation times by as much as 68% (Section 10.3). On the household level, Berkeley’s Leave Early approach provides a targeted way for wildfire-exposed households to avoid fire evacuations. In a wildfire evacuation, fire may be present along the evacuation route, producing scorching radiant heat and oxygen-displacing gases. All evacuations involve potential for injury or death, if only from collisions and crashes. In addition, the Fire Department may consider how the results of this study could be used to target Leave Early outreach efforts to residents who are most likely to have extended evacuation times. The policy is currently applied to all residents in Berkeley Fire Zones 2 & 3; staff may consider focusing on households at relatively greater risk due to extended mobilization times
and/or on neighborhoods with extended driving times due to severe congestion.
11.1.3 Housing Development Policies
The City used this study to better understand how potential development in the Berkeley Hills could impact evacuation times (see Section 10.5). It is noted that these studies assessed impacts from the maximum potential levels of new residential development from ADUs/JADUs. These analyses therefore illustrate an upper bound of potential long-term impacts from ADU/JADU development in the Hillside Overlay. Based on the results of the study, it is recommended that the City institute separate, more restrictive ADU/JADU development provisions in the Hillside Overlay.
In addition, these studies identified impacts to evacuation times from a projection of likely
development that could result from implementation of “Middle Housing” zoning changes. The results of this study indicated that in a repeat of the 1923 Fire (R02), Middle Housing could add between 5 and 10 minutes overall to ETEs. It is recommended that the City examine these increases in the context of fire spread scenarios. By overlaying fire spread data with evacuation time estimates, the City can better contextualize potential impacts to public health and safety from Middle Housing zoning changes.
Studies in Section 10.5 illustrate how increasing population density in an area, even when the added people do not own vehicles, can increase emergency evacuation times and create public safety impacts. More broadly, the City should consider impacts to evacuation when implementing zoning changes that could result in an increase in demand on roadways used by wildfire or tsunami evacuees. Simulation modeling could be employed to assess the impact of proposed development policies on evacuation times and congestion levels under emergency scenarios. This proactive approach can ensure that policymakers are able to consider emergency evacuation as part of the decision-making process.
11.2 Community Education and Household Evacuation Planning
Evacuation times, both for households and general populations at risk, are influenced by how quickly community members are alerted to an Evacuation Warning or Order, how quickly they can mobilize to begin their evacuation trips, and how quickly they can navigate the roadways to escape the hazard area. Reducing time in any of these three areas will speed individual and overall evacuation times and improve community safety in hazard events.
11.2.1 Community Alerting
The City of Berkeley maintains multiple emergency alerting systems for coordinated use in
emergency evacuations, as described in Section 5. It is recommended that the City consider conducting community education about Berkeley’s evacuation zones, as well as the emergency alerting systems that will provide evacuation orders/warnings, and how community members can register for/opt-in to those systems. If the public is ready to receive emergency alerts, they can more quickly move into mobilization. Additionally, the City should consider education to encourage potential evacuees to monitor evolving conditions and advisory announcements as well as maintain ongoing contact and communications with neighbors, friends, family members, support teams, and social media networks. These social connections will improve the distribution of the City’s emergency alert information within the affected population. These social connections may also reduce mobilization time by connecting an evacuee to help with packing, carpooling, or ensuring they have an evacuation location ready with friends or family.
During an emergency evacuation, people outside the hazard area, who are not under evacuation order or warning, may still voluntarily evacuate. These voluntary evacuations reduce the available roadway capacity and contribute to traffic congestion. This increases evacuation times for people trying to escape the hazard area.
Public information and public messaging about who is at risk should be clear before and during an emergency so that community members who are not at risk are less likely to contribute to traffic congestion. The City may also consider including explicit instructions for people outside the hazard area to shelter in place, in order to reduce demand on roadways.
11.2.2 Improving Household Mobilization and Evacuation Travel Times
Mobilization is how quickly evacuees prepare to leave and enter the roadway system. Berkeley community members could take as long as 3.5 hours to mobilize. Higher mobilization times are associated with particular household decisions, such as waiting for commuters to return home, picking up children at school, or returning to the evacuation zone for any reason.
Evacuation travel time, or how long a vehicle is on the road, is increased with roadway congestion. Reductions in vehicular traffic during emergency evacuations will help reduce
congestion and speed evacuation travel times.
11.2.2.1 Community Education
The City should consider the results of this study when designing community education about household-level evacuation readiness. Community education may include the following concepts:
- Evacuees with vehicles should carpool (i.e., evacuate as a household in a single vehicle) to the extent possible to reduce the number of vehicles on the road, which will lessen traffic congestion and could reduce evacuation time. Evacuees with vehicle access should also be encouraged to include transit-dependent neighbors in their evacuation plans. Similarly, transit-dependent evacuees should be encouraged to improve their mobilization times by connecting with neighbors and making plans to carpool in an emergency evacuation.
- Evacuees should understand and practice using primary, secondary, and tertiary evacuation routes. An ability to react to changing conditions will improve a household’s evacuation travel time and will contribute to a reduction in overall evacuation times by distributing traffic on available roadways (see Section 9).
- Parents and guardians should engage with their children’s schools regarding evacuation plans, with the goal of reducing trips to pick up children from schools within an evacuation zone. Making provisions for parents to pick up children outside the evacuation zone will reduce traffic congestion around schools in evacuation zones and will improve families’ mobilization times.
- Households should plan for commuters to remain outside of the evacuation zone and reunite with other household members outside the hazard area, instead of returning to the evacuation zone. This will reduce the household mobilization time.
11.2.3 Evacuating on Bicycle and Foot
The analysis in this document focuses on simulating and measuring vehicular traffic: 96.6% of Berkeley community members report that they plan to use a vehicle to evacuate. This high percentage is unsurprising, as many people will want to bring their valuable and sentimental items with them in an evacuation, and many people are not physically able and/or equipped to quickly leave on bike or foot.
However, some Berkeley community members plan to use bicycles or to walk during an evacuation. According to the demographic survey, citywide 2.2% of Berkeley residents, employees, and college students plan to evacuate on foot and 1.4% of people plan to evacuate on bicycle. In the hills specifically, these numbers decrease to 1.5% on foot and 0.5% on bicycle. This distinction could reflect the characteristics of the road network, which is winding, narrow, with significant elevation changes, versus relatively flat, wide, and gridded in the flats.
In addition to location, community members might be opting to walk or bike out for different
reasons. Some households use bicycles and walking as their primary means of transportation. Others may not own or have access to a vehicle (which was the case for 7.5% of survey respondents Citywide). Still others may believe they will be able to evacuate more quickly on a bike or on foot than they could a vehicle. Past experience from the 1991 Oakland-Berkeley Hills Fire, as well as the analysis in this document, demonstrate the likelihood of significant traffic congestion in a fire, leading to the possibility that a fire could move faster than evacuating vehicles and overtake them.
From an individual evacuee perspective, the key issues to weigh in a cycling or pedestrian evacuation are speed and safety. The risks of driving out of an evacuating area are well understood: collisions and traffic congestion can impede the evacuee’s ability to escape the hazard area, creating the potential for exposure to the hazard while evacuating. Stated simply, there is an understood possibility that evacuees in vehicles could be stuck in traffic and overtaken by fire. The assumption is that evacuating on foot or bike might be faster than evacuating in a vehicle. This analysis was not in the scope of this project.
The second key issue relates to evacuee safety. The risks present for people evacuating in vehicles (collisions and exposure to the hazard) are present for cyclists and pedestrians, and because of the lack of basic protections provided by the metal frame of a vehicle, they are heightened. Collisions are likely during evacuations, considering the high volume of people sharing the roadway under highly stressful conditions. The same collision may cause minor injuries/damage for a driver in a vehicle while a cyclist or pedestrian experiences serious injury or death. In addition, a significant injury would also divert critical emergency resources away from firefighting to attend to and transport patient(s) to the emergency room.
Secondly, exposure to the hazard at hand is also heightened for the cyclist or pedestrian. For instance, in a wildfire evacuation, fire may be present along the evacuation route, producing radiant heat and gases. Evacuees in vehicles have some protection from surrounding environmental conditions, reducing the initial impact of proximal wildfire. Evacuees on foot or bicycle will be exposed to scorching radiant heat and oxygen-displacing gases that are likely to significantly impact their ability to successfully evacuate an impacted area.
[Here Tsunami discussion…]
Wildfire
Wildfire presents a very different set of challenges from tsunami. The area of potential wildfire impact is not clearly defined and is highly dynamic due to the nature of wildfire spread. In a wildfire, the potential ignition locations are endless. A wildfire may start far away from Berkeley and grow before it impacts the community. Alternately, it may start within Berkeley. The speed of fire spread is variable depending on topography, fuel, and weather conditions. Ember cast can also ignite spot fires in advance of the main flame front.
Berkeley’s public safety officials do not currently recommend biking or walking as a primary evacuation plan for wildfire. While, under some circumstances for some people, pedestrian or bicycle evacuation could potentially provide a faster means of egress than using a car, there are significant safety risks associated with this approach.
Ultimately, the decisions about when and how to evacuate belong to individuals, who will decide based on their own risk tolerance. All evacuations involve potential for injury or death, if only from collisions and crashes. The lowest-risk option is to pre-emptively leave the Berkeley Hills on days when the Berkeley Fire Department has declared extreme fire weather. [highlight by BerkeleyFirewise.org]
Cycling and walking: Impacts to overall evacuation times
This study does not specifically explore how overall roadway evacuation times change with a multimodal evacuation because of the 3.6% of evacuees citywide who plan to bike or walk instead of using a vehicle.
It could be posited that fewer cars on the roadway reduce vehicular congestion and could
increase driving speeds. But it is beyond the scope of the study to identify how the interactions among cars, cyclists, and pedestrians leaving together sharing a roadway would change with additional cyclists/pedestrians and fewer vehicles. It is unknown whether a significant increase in people opting to evacuate via bicycle or on foot will significantly change overall evacuation times.
If it were assumed that cyclists and pedestrians could be considered removed from the roadways based on their chosen mode of egress, the sensitivity study examining the impacts to evacuation times from community members leaving the Berkeley hills early during extreme fire weather could serve as a proxy to define what kind of impacts on vehicular evacuation times would be created from more people opting to evacuate on foot or bike. (See Section 10.3 for details.)
While community members’ evacuation plans may differ, it is critical that each household has a plan that all members understand, that they practice the plan together, and that each person is able to perform their role under significant stress.
11.3 Increasing Roadway Capacity and Connectivity
These recommendations focus on how the roadway capacity (number of vehicles that can be processed in a given amount of time) and connectivity (route choice for evacuating vehicles) can be increased. The higher the roadway capacity and connectivity, the lower the evacuation time (with the same evacuating demand).
11.3.1 Traffic Calming Devices
This analysis indicates that the Traffic Calming Devices (TCDs) throughout the city are performing as designed, effectively reducing vehicular speeds and thus reducing the risk of severe injury and/or fatality traffic crashes. However, this intended function conflicts with the goal of evacuation, which is to expedite the egress of individuals from the affected area.
Appendix F identifies patterns of traffic congestion during evacuation and Appendix G highlights particular roadway constraints and traffic calming devices with notable impacts across various evacuation regions studied. It is strongly recommended that the City of Berkeley consider the following actions:
- Existing Infrastructure: Develop a citywide connectivity and evacuation capacity improvement strategy, integrating approaches such as actuated or adaptive signal timing and replacing TCDs with removable/retractable options, and other evolving technologies.
- Future infrastructure: Develop and implement a methodology to evaluate and consider evacuation efficiency and roadway capacity during the planning and implementation phases of future roadway infrastructure development, including TCD installations.
- First Responder response times: Develop and implement a methodology to assess impacts from TCDs to first responder response times in daily traffic environments.
11.3.2 Traffic Signal Improvements
Traffic signals are essential to the safe and efficient functioning of the roadway network and play a critical role during emergency evacuations. Their effectiveness in such scenarios is greatly enhanced when they remain operational during power outages and feature signal timing plans that are both optimized and adaptable to real-time traffic conditions. These capabilities help minimize the need for emergency personnel to manually direct traffic, allowing those resources to be deployed to more urgent, lifesaving duties.
To improve the resilience, coordination, and functionality of the City’s traffic signal
infrastructure, the following actions are recommended:
- Optimize Signal Timing Plans: Evaluate and implement improved signal timing strategies, including actuated and/or adaptive systems, to better manage traffic flow day-to-day and during emergencies. (See Section 10.6.) Many existing signals in the city are pre-timed and lack flexibility. Adaptive signal control is particularly valuable during evacuations, as it can automatically adjust signal timings in response to real-time traffic conditions, helping to move large volumes of vehicles more efficiently and reduce congestion along key evacuation corridors.
- Install Battery Backup Systems: Upgrade all traffic signal cabinets to include battery backup systems that can operate for a minimum of 6-8 hours, ensuring continued signal operation during power outages and maintaining safe and coordinated traffic movement during evacuations.
- Enhance Emergency Vehicle Pre-emption: Evaluate potential improvements to traffic signal system to have the latest pre-emption equipment and capabilities. Pre-emption for Fire and Police Department vehicles is essential during day-to-day emergencies and evacuation events, as it allows responders to override normal signal operations, receive immediate green lights, and avoid delays. This capability ensures faster responder access to hazardous areas, supports evacuation logistics, and improves overall public safety and emergency response times.
- Strengthen Communications Infrastructure: Install a robust fiber-optic network to improve the reliability and speed of traffic signal communications. A strong communications backbone enables real-time monitoring and coordination, even if parts of the system experience disruptions.
- Deploy Smart Traffic Cameras: Install smart traffic cameras at key intersections and corridors to provide real-time detection, monitoring, and traffic data collection. These technologies support situational awareness, enable quicker response to traffic conditions, and facilitate adaptive signal control during emergencies.
- Implement Transit Signal Priority (TSP): Upgrade traffic signal system along Berkeley’s highest capacity routes to ensure that public transit vehicles can move efficiently through congested corridors, reducing delays, and maximizing their ability to transport large numbers of people during day-to-day operations as well as evacuations.
- Coordinate Regionally: Work closely with surrounding jurisdictions to ensure interoperability and synchronization of traffic signal systems during emergency evacuations. Coordinated regional signal operations will help maintain consistent traffic flow, reduce delays at jurisdictional boundaries, and support broader evacuation strategies.
- Traffic Signal Software for Centralized Control: Assess the need for traffic signal software upgrades to enable full communication with external systems and centralized command through the City’s envisioned Traffic Management Center (TMC). This ensures operators can remotely monitor and adjust traffic signals citywide during emergencies.
11.4 Parking Restrictions
Although temporary and permanent parking restrictions (such as red curbing) are unlikely to substantially improve evacuation flow (see Section 9), the City could consider the strategic implementation of parking restrictions along arterial roadways in the Berkeley Hills, with a focus on those roadways predominantly utilized by emergency response vehicles for ingress during emergency response. This targeted approach would optimize maneuverability and reduce potential impedance for essential services without imposing broad restrictions that are unlikely to significantly improve overall evacuation egress flow.
The City may also evaluate and determine if temporary parking restrictions implemented on
certain roadway segments only during hazardous conditions (e.g., fire weather) could improve responder ingress times during evacuation."
References
- Evacuation Time Study [PDF]: the full length study, directly from the City of Berkeley
- Our analysis of the conclusions of the 2025 Berkeley Evacuation Study