There is little doubt that we will be facing ember storms when evacuating. If a wildfire comes in fire season, it will likely be during strong N-E Diablo winds. A part of Tilden Park will be burning, and embers will come down in large quantities around our neighborhoods for many hours.
This remarkable and disturbing simulation video, from Australia, shows what circumstances we may be facing when evacuating:
Please note the extraordinarily chaotic situations generated by the fire:
- Fires start simultaneously in many areas
- There is no single fire front moving linearly in one direction
- Evacuation routes are quickly jammed
- Fires may block sections of roads at both ends
- Nobody knows where to go, and which evacuation routes are open or jammed
A fog of war will spread over the whole area of the fire and way beyond it, both in reality, through impenetrable smoke, and in understanding of where the fire is and what it is doing.
Chief Dave Winnacker, of BFD, summarizes these conditions by saying: “you can’t outthink the fire.”