Dear Mayor Ishii and City Councilmembers,
There could have been plenty of healthy debate around EMBER. Instead, some EMBER opponents have chosen to drive a campaign focused on disinformation. Many EMBER opponents who will show up at the city council meeting believe some of the following disinformation that has been disseminated through flyers, skewed surveys and social media:
- [survey] you are required to remove all vegetation and wood structures (pergolas, fences) within five feet of your house [FALSE btw—trees and wood structures likely do not need removal]
- [survey] EMBER, if applied over a short time, may cause environmental biodiversity and habitat disturbance at large, wildlife migration downhill, natural pest-control loss (e.g. birds, small mammals that eat pests in our homes and gardens), etc. [FALSE assertion with no evidence]
- [survey] EMBER, if applied over a short time, may cause [sic] geochemistry of the soil, changing of the underground creeks, unexpected erosion, sliding, flooding, drastic structural changes to house foundations due to structural changes of the ground. [FALSE assertion with no evidence]
- [survey] EMBER, if applied over a short time, may cause increased air temperature and dryness around your house, increasing the number of potential self-ignition spots (e.g. sun on a hot & dry day igniting dry grass or wood siding). [FALSE assertion with no evidence]
- [survey] EMBER, if applied over a short time, may cause health impacts due to increased temperature and worse air quality. [FALSE assertion with no evidence]
- [survey] EMBER, if applied over a short time, may cause lowering of the water table in a large area near close to Tilden park, (the mass removal of the mature growth — that draws up deep water and thus makes it available to shorter rooted and younger plants — will result in lowering of the water table), increased drought stress to the remaining trees and increased fire hazard due to more dry vegetation. [FALSE assertion with no evidence]
- [survey] EMBER, if applied over a short time, may cause [sic] seismic stability of the Berkeley Hills. [FALSE assertion with no evidence]
- [survey] EMBER, if applied over a short time, may cause flooding of the Berkeley flats.
- [flyer] No plants within 5 ft of entire home: [FALSE. All mature trees can be kept if their foliage can be kept 5 ft away from the walls when low, or 10 ft above the roof]
- [flyer] Targeting 9,000 homes [FALSE. 900 in Grizzly Peak Mitigation Area, 1200 homes total. All extensions need a vote]
- [flyer] Huge financial burden solely on homeowners: estimate of $100,000 for one home on Buena Vista Way [FALSE. The person claiming that on social media admitted later that she was including home hardening costs as well as the cost of relandscaping her deck to get more shade]
- [flyer] Only 60 days to comply then fines and house liens [FALSE. A year or more to comply BEFORE the first inspection]
- [flyer] No exceptions. [FALSE. “Modifications” (following nature but not format of the law) and “Fire Plans” (staging) allowed under existing guidance]
- [flyer] Studies show home hardening saves homes, not plant removal [FALSE and proven false numerous times—both defensible space and home hardening are necessary. For instance, this 2021 study shows that wood roofs and noncompliance with defensible space [i.e. zones 0, 1 and 2] contributed equally to the loss of homes in the Paradise fire, and this 2018 study shows that zone 0 makes it possible to greatly decrease home ignitions.
- [flyer] No environmental impact study NOT REQUIRED.
- [flyer] Rushed and hushed. FALSE. Beyond the regular process and numerous outreach efforts, city postponed vote by 7 weeks to increase outreach.
- [online] EMBER is much stricter than the state’s regulations [FALSE: exactly the same]
- [online] Vegetation in Zone 0 saves homes by sheltering them from fire [FALSE assertion with no evidence]
- [online] EMBER in the Grizzly Peak Mitigation Area will result in 87 acres of bare ground. [FALSE: this study says 2.3 acres]
- [online] EMBER will result in radical loss trees and vegetation that will change the way the Hills look. [FALSE: the same study found only 3 trees to be removed of 87 existing, for a sample of 62 homes, i.e. 3.5% of trees]
Instead, here is what experts say.
Professor Gollner of the Fire Research Lab at UC Berkeley is one the the top wildfire scientists in the nation:
"[… E]ven small flames, 1 foot tall can penetrate building materials that otherwise are fire resistant if left long enough. Heat fluxes from small sustained flames can far exceed ignition properties of most otherwise fire-resistant materials, therefore there is a need to support hardening on a home by moving any possible flames back some distance, preventing another “pathway” to ignition. The 5-foot zone “0” helps accomplish this.
[…] the 5 feet [zone near] the home has been highlighted to be clear of any flammable materials to prevent the intrusion of sustained flames to structures. I know it’s a broad stroke, saying to remove everything flammable, but to take an alternative path would be incredibly complicated and have a lot to do with what materials a structure is made with, what wind and direction it might come from, the location of neighbors, and more details than we can possibly specify and understand. Keeping this small area as a “safe zone” around the structure will help give any hardening applied a real chance to actually survive the onslaught and help prevent more destruction. Because many houses are located so close to one another your neighbor’s house is also a potential source so protecting entire communities is critical.
It’s hard to make a better visual than IBHS’ full scale demonstrations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYvwogREEk4
We’ve been burning houses (7 now) on structure to structure experiments and we’re learning a lot. I do believe the 5-foot zone is an integral part of the solution.
[…] there is a strong and clear relationship between zone 0 and reduced destruction, especially combined with home hardening. That also makes physical sense, we expect zone 0 to be most influential in reducing those local exposures and making hardening more effective.
[…] I think all scientists agree you need flammable materials out of the 5-foot zone, they are debating on what is “flammable” and that sort of depends on whether you are talking about ignition from embers, a small fire creeping up, or a massive flame from a neighbor’s house that lights your bush on fire that then lights your house on fire.
[…] I don’t like how clear cut it has to be, but I understand how difficult any regulation in practice will be. A bush honestly is a bad idea - flammability, it’s a lot of fuel if it dries out, litters, how is it maintained, etc. Mulch - we tested it, it is all pretty bad that close to a house. A little potted petunia, probably fine, but how to distinguish how large is not, or if the flower pot is flammable. Do we create a flower pot certification process? It’s really hard. So, I support a straightforward plan that’s going to lower risk in high risk areas."
Chief Dave Winnacker, who joined BFD a few weeks ago, is one of the foremost wildfire fighting experts in the country:
"What do you think is the likelihood of a wildfire coming into the Berkeley Ridge?
A major wildfire coming in Berkeley is inevitable if you run time horizon far enough at human scale. We live in a fire-dependent landscape that is intended to burn. Climate change has increased temperatures and accumulation of fuel, and compressed the rain season. Our risks worsen with time.
What about our likelihood of loss of life?
It is not quantifiable, but high. The fire moves from east to west, and our narrow streets run from north to south. There will be losses.
Can we survive a wildfire on the Ridge in Extreme Fire Weather?
Yes. If we are prepared, puny little men with tools can stop it.
Is the Berkeley Ridge defensible today? Would BFD position assets there and endeavor to defend it?
BFD will do what it can, but we have a low probability of success.
Can we defend the Berkeley Ridge without EMBER?
I dont think so."
I urge you to ignore disinformation, follow the real experts in wildfire science and firefighting, and pass EMBER now.
Many thanks for your consideration,
signed: K.T.
Creston Rd, Berkeley